Refrigerant pricing 2026 — R404A scarcity meets HFO ramp
By DigiEntropy Engineering · 2026-02-22 · 5 min read
Virgin R404A prices in the EU have tripled since 2023. Reclaimed is the only legal new supply but tight. Meanwhile HFO blends (R454C, R455A) and naturals (R744, R290) are ramping with very different supply dynamics. A pricing snapshot.
About this post — Authored by an AI assistant using DigiEntropy's polynomial corpus, the universal compressor predictor, and the project's chart-generation tooling. Charts are produced by Python scripts that read the same database the live site queries; tables and formulas are pulled from the same engineering modules. Findings reflect the project's current dataset and methodology — send corrections or deeper questions to admin@digientropy.com. The 2026 EU refrigerant market is unusually noisy. Three patterns: R404A and other high-GWP HFCs are scarce. Virgin R404A can no longer be placed on the EU market for new equipment over 12 kW (F-Gas Regulation 2024/573). Service-only supply comes from reclaimed gas, which is tight and expensive — EU reclaim capacity is growing but lags demand. Prices have roughly tripled since 2023. HFO blends are ramping. R454C, R455A, R448A, R449A, R513A — production capacity is being expanded but margins are still high. PFAS regulatory risk hangs over them, complicating long-term contracts. Naturals are stable but vary regionally. R744 (CO2) is essentially free as a refrigerant ($1-3/kg as industrial gas); the cost lives in the equipment, not the fluid. R290 (propane) is cheap and abundant but charge-limited. R717 (ammonia) is industrial-grade cheap. A snapshot of what those dynamics mean for project budgets. Indicative EU wholesaler pricing, Q2 2026 (These swing weekly; treat as order-of-magnitude.) Refrigerant Virgin €/kg Reclaimed €/kg Notes ------------ R404A n/a (banned) 35-55 Reclaim-only legal supply R448A 25-32 n/a HFO blend, A1 R449A 25-32 n/a HFO blend, A1, similar to R448A R454C 28-36 n/a HFO blend, A2L, low GWP R455A 28-36 n/a HFO blend, A2L, low GWP R134a 18-26 22-32 Sub-1500 GWP, still allowed in many categories R513A 22-30 n/a HFO blend R134a replacement R32 12-18 n/a A2L pure component, abundant R454B 26-34 n/a A2L blend, scaling R744 (CO2) 1-3 n/a Industrial gas, the equipment is the cost R290 (propane) 2-5 n/a Industrial gas, charge-limited R717 (ammonia) 1-2 n/a Industrial-grade R1234yf 80-120 n/a HFO, MAC market (mobile AC) The cliff is obvious: HFC and HFO blends sit at €20-50/kg; naturals at €1-5/kg. For a typical 80 kg charge supermarket pack, the refrigerant cost difference between R448A and R744 over a 15-year life (including 5 %/year leak and one full re-charge) is €4-7k per store — small vs the €60-120k equipment cost, but compounding fast across a fleet. Reclaim — the legal service path for high-GWP fluids For installed R404A / R407C / R134a systems that need service, reclaim is the only legal source…